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MUMBAI: The relentless plunge in China’s stocks has burnished the appeal of their biggest emerging-market rival India, spurring a divergence that’s rarely been seen before.
The MSCI India Index rallied almost 10% in the just-ended quarter, compared with a 23% slump for the MSCI China Index. The 33-percentage point outperformance by the India gauge is the biggest since March 2000.
Beijing’s zero-Covid pursuit, regulatory crackdowns and tensions with the West have led to a US$5 trillion (RM23.2 trillion) rout in Chinese stocks since early 2021.
And India – long dubbed the “next China” – has become an attractive alternative with economic growth that’s forecast to be the fastest in Asia.
Market veteran Mark Mobius has allocated a higher weight to India than China since the start of this year.
Jupiter Asset Management said some of its emerging-market funds have India as their largest holding. M&G Investments (Singapore) Pte has made a “greater allocation” to India in 2022.
India’s expanding domestic market means the country can weather a looming global recession better than most other emerging markets, money managers say.
In the longer term, China’s decoupling with the United States may also pave the way for Indian firms to boost their presence worldwide.,
China’s “draconian lockdowns continue to impact these supply chains, so the clamour for an alternative has been rapidly gaining favour,” said Nick Payne, a London-based investment manager for global emerging-market equities at Jupiter.
“India is the key candidate to fill that role, in an approach that’s been dubbed China+1.”
The big divergence between the two stock markets started to take place in February 2021 as tightening liquidity conditions in China contributed to the unwinding of a two-year rally in equities.
Indian stocks, meanwhile, kept hitting record highs thanks to an unprecedented retail investing boom.
The aggregate market value of firms included in the MSCI China Index has dropped since then and the gauge closed Friday at its lowest level since July 2016.
The MSCI India Index – which reached an all-time high earlier this year – has added about US$300bil (RM1.34 trillion).
A long-term correlation between the two gauges has been negative since November, the longest stretch on record. Investor positioning has also diverged.
Global EM Fund allocations to India are at a record high while those to China are recovering modestly from a sharp drop in the past few quarters, according to Cameron Brandt, director of research at EPFR Global, a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research firm.,